Ma'aikatan hakar mai na Alberta sun samar da rikodin 1.6 bbl / rana na bitumen a cikin 2022, ninki biyu na matsakaicin 2009. Ci gaban da aka samu ya kai matsakaicin kashi 10% a shekara a cikin shekaru ashirin da suka gabata, kodayake ƴan shekarun da suka gabata sun kasance marasa ƙarfi saboda rashin ƙarfi. na sararin bututun bututu, umarnin takaitawa da cutar ta COVID-19.
Amma menene makomar hakar yashin mai?Ba kamar wuraren da ake ciki ba, sabbin ma'adanai suna buƙatar amincewar tarayya, wanda zai iya zama tsari mai tsayi da rashin tabbas.Haɗe tare da ƙyalli na iskar carbon da net-zero buri nan da 2050, ba zai yuwu ba za a ƙaddamar da wasu sabbin ayyuka don amincewar tarayya nan da nan.
Duk da haka, ba duk ya ɓace ba, saboda akwai yawancin fadadawa da ayyukan debottlenecking waɗanda suka riga sun sami izini a wurin.
AYYUKA MASA MAJIYA NA
Nakiyoyin da ake da su da yawa za su ƙare a cikin ƴan shekaru masu zuwa.Dukansu Horizon da Mildred Lake's North Mine an shirya su fara ruguje ayyukansu nan ba da dadewa ba, kuma dukkansu sun amince da shirye-shiryen maye gurbin naki da aka riga aka fara.
Horizon zai motsa ayyukan hakar ma'adinai zuwa Horizon ta Kudu, wanda a da ake kira Joslyn North pit, kuma Mildred Lake zai ƙaura zuwa Mildred Lake Extension West (MLX-W) a cikin 'yan shekaru masu zuwa.Dukansu ƙaƙƙarfan ƙaura ne na kayan aikin hakar ma'adinai, kuma ba za su haɗa da sabbin masana'antar sarrafa su ba.
Ma'adanan na gaba da za a rage shine Suncor's Base Plant, wanda ke da kusan shekaru 10 na rayuwata.Base Mine Extension (BMX) ba shi da izini a wurin, kuma kwanan nan Suncor ya jinkirta shirye-shiryen ƙaddamar da aikace-aikacen sa na tsari zuwa 2025, wanda ya yi daidai da ranar zaɓen tarayya na gaba.Ba kamar Horizon South da MLX-West ba, BMX zai buƙaci sabbin masana'antun sarrafa kayayyaki, tun da ma'adinan yana gefen yammacin kogin Athabasca.
AYYUKAN DEBOTTLENECKING
Horizon yana da ƙananan ayyuka da yawa akan littattafan, ciki har da ƙananan ingantaccen haɓakawa, sabon kayan aikin jiyya na Froth, da kuma injin cirewa a cikin rami (IPEP).Duk da yake a halin yanzu babu ƙayyadaddun lokaci don kammalawa, ayyukan uku suna da yuwuwar haɓaka fitarwa da kusan 100,000 bbl / rana.
Imperial's Kearl Mine shima yana da wurin girma a cikin ƙayyadaddun ƙa'idojin da aka amince dashi.Kamfanin ya ce yana duban haɓakar haɓakawa da 10%, ko 25,000 bbl / rana, ta 2030. A cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, Kearl yana duban haɓaka farfadowar bitumen ta hanyar ƙarin ƙarfin hawan ruwa.
FADAWA DA GREENFIELD
Akwai manyan fadada guda uku waɗanda tuni suka sami amincewar tarayya a wurin.
An amince da Syncrude's Aurora South a matsayin wani ɓangare na Aikin Aurora a cikin 1990s.An fara amincewa da Aurora don 430,000 bbl / rana a cikin matakai huɗu - biyu a Aurora Arewa, biyu kuma a Aurora ta Kudu.Aurora North yana da ikon shigar 225,000 bbl / rana, yana barin "sararin samaniya" don wani 200,000 bbl / rana a Aurora South.Koyaya, wannan na buƙatar babban haɓaka haɓakar tafkin Mildred, wanda ba zai yuwu ya faru ba.Kamfanin ya ce za a bunkasa Aurora South da zarar MLX ya ƙare, wanda ake sa ran zai kasance kusan 2040.
Albian Sands kuma suna da matakai guda biyu na haɓakawa a Jackpine.An amince da Ma'adinan Jackpine don jiragen kasa biyu, amma Train 1 kawai aka kammala.Tsohon ma'aikacin Shell Canada kuma ya sami izini don samar da 100,000 bbl / rana a Ma'adinan Fadada na Jackpine, wanda ke arewa da hayar Jackpine.
Koyaya, duka biyun Albian Sands na ma'adinai suna da ikon shigar da 340,000 bbl/rana, wanda yayi daidai da na Scotford Upgrader.Don haka duk wani faɗaɗa mahakar ma'adinan ko dai yana buƙatar faɗaɗa mai haɓakawa, ko kayan aikin samar da bitumen mai kasuwa.
KARAWA DUKA
Ƙarfin samar da bitumen da aka sanya a tsakanin masu aikin hakar ma'adinan shine bbl miliyan 1.8 a kowace rana, 200,000 bbl/rana sama da matsakaicin abin da aka fitar a bara.Wannan shine ƙananan 'ya'yan itace masu rataye, wakiltar ɗakin haɓakawa wanda aka rigaya an yarda da shi kuma a wurin.
Haɗe tare da shirye-shiryen faɗaɗa waɗanda ke kan aikin, samar da bitumen da aka haƙa zai yi yuwuwa inci kusan biliyan 1.9 bbl / rana nan da 2030.
Albarkatun kasa na Kanada yana da wani 200,000 bbl/rana na "ɗakin da aka keɓe" a Albian, wanda zai iya ganin hasken rana da yawa a ƙasa.Koyaya, hakan zai buƙaci duka ƙaƙƙarfan farashin mai, da ƙarin haske kan ƙa'idodin carbon na gaba.
