Babban ma'aunin mai na Alberta, Western Canadian Select (WCS), ya ƙare makon da ke ƙasa da dalar Amurka 50 ganga a karon farko tun ƙarshen shekarar da ta gabata.Ana zargin sabon ƙarancin 2022 a wani ɓangare don rage farashin mai gabaɗaya, amma galibi saboda faɗaɗa bambancin mai na Kanada.
OPEC+ RALLY FIZZLES
Farashin man fetur na ci gaba da faduwa a cikin rabin na biyu na shekarar 2022. Farashin ya samu dan kadan a farkon watan Oktoba, bayan da kungiyar OPEC+ ta zabe ta don rage kason da ake hakowa da miliyan biyu bbl/rana.Haƙiƙanin raguwar ya kusan kusan bbl miliyan 1 a kowace rana saboda ci gaba da kawo cikas ga kayan aiki a tsakanin manyan membobin OPEC.
Alamun faduwar tattalin arzikin duniya tun daga lokacin sun kawar da yawancin nasarorin.WTI ta ƙare makon akan dalar Amurka 76 ganga guda, ƙasa daga sama da dalar Amurka 120 a watan Yuni.A yanzu OPEC ta ce tana ganin an samu kasuwa mai yawa a cikin rubu'i na hudu, kuma da alama ba za ta iya samar da kaso a taron da za su yi a ranar 4 ga Disamba ba.
RASHIN WCS
Yayin da duk ma'auni na danyen mai ya ragu daga mafi girma a farkon Nuwamba, WCS ya sha wahala fiye da yawancin, saboda fadada rangwame ga WTI.
Farashin mai da bambance-bambancen sun kasance mafi ƙanƙanta a lokacin hunturu, lokacin da buƙatun mai ya fi rauni.Sai dai, rangwamen na bana shi ne mafi girma tun bayan umarnin rage 2019, mai yiwuwa saboda dawowar cunkoson bututun fitar da kayayyaki.
Cibiyar sadarwa ta bututun mai na Western Canada ta ƙare 2021 tare da daki don adanawa, godiya ga kammala aikin Enbridge's Line 3 Replacement Project a cikin Oktoba 2021. TC Energy tun daga lokacin ya kammala fadada bututun Keystone 50,000 bbl / rana wanda ya ƙara ƙarin sarari.Ƙarfin fitar da danyen mai, ban da ingantattun samfuran, an kiyasta kusan bbl miliyan 4.0 a kowace rana.
Duk da cewa sufurin jirgin kasa ya yi hasarar sa, har yanzu ya kai kusan 125,000 bb/rana na fitar da danyen mai zuwa kasashen waje, kadan ya canza daga matsakaicin bara.
TO ME YA CANZA?
A wannan shekarar ta kasance cikin shagaltuwa sosai ga masu aikin yashin mai ta hanyar kula da hankali, wani bangare saboda jinkirin rufewar yayin barkewar cutar.Yawancin 2022, Mainline na Enbridge, wanda ke jigilar kusan kashi biyu bisa uku na fitar da danyen mai na Kanada, yana aiki ƙasa da ƙarfinsa saboda raguwar wadata.
Amma wannan yanayin tun daga lokacin ya koma baya, kuma samarwa ya karu sosai a cikin kwata na huɗu.Ana sa ran samar da bitumen musamman, wanda kusan duk ana fitarwa zuwa Amurka, ana sa ran zai fita daga 2022 a wani sabon matsayi.Ana hasashen wadatawar Dilbit zai kai 300,000 bbl/rana mafi girma a wannan Disamba idan aka kwatanta da daidai lokacin bara, lokacin da rangwamen WCS ya kasance dalar Amurka $15 kawai a ganga.
Enbridge yanzu ya ce za a raba Mainline a watan Disamba, wanda ke nufin za a bukaci wasu masu kera kayayyaki su nemi wasu hanyoyi.Mainline yana da damar fitar da danyen mai na miliyan 3.1 bbl/rana, kusan 2.3 bbl/rana wanda aka tanada don masu jigilar mai.
Ana shirin rage ƙarancin kulawa a shekara mai zuwa, wanda ke nufin 2023 zai iya zama shekara mai rikodin rikodi na yashin mai.Ba za a sanya aikin Faɗaɗɗen Dutsen Dutsen zuwa cikin sabis ba har zuwa kwata na huɗu, wanda wataƙila zai aika ƙarin ƙarin ganga zuwa tankunan ajiya, ko kan motocin dogo.
Hana duk wani babban cikas a cikin yashin mai, ko dawo da kaso mai tsoka, duk hanyoyin suna nuna ragi mai yawa a 2023.